{"data":{"headline":{"checked":1605555,"violated":0,"violation_rate":"0.0000","violation_rate_high":"0.0000","labelled":0,"wrong_relations_still_live":0},"buckets":[{"relation":"equivalent","family":"sports","cross_venue":true,"checked":74,"violated":0,"unverifiable":0,"violation_rate":"0.0000","violation_rate_low":"0.0000","violation_rate_high":"0.0493","first_settled_at":"2026-09-15T00:57:38.446223Z","last_settled_at":"2026-09-15T05:04:27Z","labels":{"correct":0,"wrong":0,"unsure":0},"wrong_relations_still_live":0,"released":true},{"relation":"implies","family":"ladder","cross_venue":false,"checked":845790,"violated":0,"unverifiable":1,"violation_rate":"0.0000","violation_rate_low":"0.0000","violation_rate_high":"0.0000","first_settled_at":"2026-09-14T14:30:38.441623Z","last_settled_at":"2026-09-15T23:14:08.397406Z","labels":{"correct":0,"wrong":0,"unsure":0},"wrong_relations_still_live":0,"released":true},{"relation":"implies","family":"sports","cross_venue":true,"checked":945,"violated":0,"unverifiable":0,"violation_rate":"0.0000","violation_rate_low":"0.0000","violation_rate_high":"0.0040","first_settled_at":"2026-09-14T21:10:42Z","last_settled_at":"2026-09-15T21:44:24Z","labels":{"correct":0,"wrong":0,"unsure":0},"wrong_relations_still_live":0,"released":true},{"relation":"contradicts","family":"ladder","cross_venue":false,"checked":668094,"violated":0,"unverifiable":0,"violation_rate":"0.0000","violation_rate_low":"0.0000","violation_rate_high":"0.0000","first_settled_at":"2026-09-14T18:02:28.561667Z","last_settled_at":"2026-09-15T22:31:28.446791Z","labels":{"correct":0,"wrong":0,"unsure":0},"wrong_relations_still_live":0,"released":true},{"relation":"contradicts","family":"sports","cross_venue":true,"checked":12,"violated":0,"unverifiable":0,"violation_rate":"0.0000","violation_rate_low":"0.0000","violation_rate_high":"0.2425","first_settled_at":"2026-09-14T21:10:42Z","last_settled_at":"2026-09-15T21:44:24Z","labels":{"correct":0,"wrong":0,"unsure":0},"wrong_relations_still_live":0,"released":true},{"relation":"contradicts","family":"exclusive","cross_venue":false,"checked":90640,"violated":0,"unverifiable":28,"violation_rate":"0.0000","violation_rate_low":"0.0000","violation_rate_high":"0.0000","first_settled_at":"2026-09-14T17:52:48.443388Z","last_settled_at":"2026-09-15T22:44:08.447758Z","labels":{"correct":0,"wrong":0,"unsure":0},"wrong_relations_still_live":0,"released":true}],"release":{"min_checked":25,"max_violation_rate":"0.0100","released":[{"family":"ladder","cross_venue":false,"checked":1513884,"violated":0},{"family":"sports","cross_venue":true,"checked":1031,"violated":0},{"family":"exclusive","cross_venue":false,"checked":90640,"violated":0}]},"refreshed_at":"2026-09-17T16:10:30.482974Z","methodology":["Every relation the graph proves is a claim about outcomes. Once both markets have settled, the claim is checked against the results: equivalent markets must settle the same way, an implication fails only when the implying market settles Yes and the implied one No, an exclusion fails only when both settle Yes. Overlaps make no claim and are counted but never checked.","A market that settled scalar or void cannot check anything; such pairs are counted as unverifiable.","Figures are grouped by relation type and proof family (strike ladders on one venue, sports game lines across venues, economic variables across venues, source-asserted exclusive events), on one venue or across both. Subset and superset edges are one type, implies.","Every check is run again when a venue changes a result. Violation rates carry a 95% Wilson interval, which stays honest when nothing has been violated yet.","Separately, a stratified sample of live relations is drawn every run and judged by hand as correct, wrong or unsure; precision is correct over correct plus wrong. A relation judged wrong that the latest graph still holds is counted and alerted on.","A proof family is released for executable leads only when at least 25 of its relations have been checked against outcomes and either none was violated or the upper bound of the violation rate is under 0.0100. Until then its leads are shown as informational."]}}